Articles

Slaughter and Stock in Argentina 2010

The year 2010 came to a close showing a nosedive in the Argentine slaughter in the order of 25% compared to 2009, as noticed throughout the year. It was the worst-ever inter-annual decline.
 Stock dropped by over 15% compared with 2008.
Per capita beef consumption dropped from 68 kg/year to 55.
Exports in kilograms declined by around 50%.
Stock and slaughter are expected to have recovered in 4 years’ time. Nevertheless, slaughter may experience a downward trend in 2011.
These circumstances have had a negative impact on the tanning sector, with raw materials turning costly and scarce in the last year.

Evolution of slaughter in Argentina
Argentina experienced a mid-term evolution: the distribution of farming activities have been reconsidered in the last 13 years. According to specialists (Americarne magazine, 78, p. 20), lands for crop production, especially coarse grains, have been gaining ground over pastureland for livestock. For example, 62% of the Pampa region used to be used as pastureland for cattle, but, at present, only 50% is used for such purposes.
The northern area, the semi-arid region and the basin of the Salado River have grown in importance. Not only have the cows (stockbreeding) but also calves (fattening) been re-grouped.
Although the available surface area was smaller, productivity showed an important increase, based on changes in the fattening system: part on grass pasture and supplements, and part in the farmyard. Further, there have been changes in the supply of forage, among other factors.
While the situation remained favorable, stock kept on the increase within a smaller area.
However, expectations changed in 2007 and a clearance period, which was to persist until 2009, came into being. The draught in 2008 caused the situation to worsen.
To illustrate, Graphs 1 & 2, and Table 1 below summarize the slaughter and stock data

 Graph 1: Evolution of stock (SENASA)

 Graph 2: Evolution of slaughter (ONCCA)

The main source of slaughter statistics, ONCCA, is yet to issue the figures for December, but estimates amount to 11700000/11800000 for 2010, approximately.

Table 1: Slaughter in 2010 (ONCCA)

After 5 years of slaughter figures being in excess of 13/14 million, they have plunged to less than 12 million this year
Stock, according to SENASA’s campaigns, decreased from 60 to 50 million heads.
A withholding period started in 2009, and stock has started to recompose. In the light of former experiences, it may increase by 1 million a year.

Beef in the world
According to the FAO, slaughtered animals in South America reach 68 million units; Brazil contributes with 40 million; Argentina, with more than 13 million; Colombia, Uruguay and Venezuela are next, and the other countries’ contributions are not so significant. See Graph 3 below.

 Graph 3: Slaughter in South America. Source: FAO

[Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela]

According to the specialized publication, Livestock Report No. 749 (the main reference on the issue), global beef production fell slightly by 1%. Global production in 2010 amounted to 65 million tons.
Growth in Brazil and India offset the decline in the main producing countries.
Instead, the decline in the Argentine production is the main cause of the drop at a worldwide level.
The main beef consuming countries, in kg/head, are: Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Canada, USA, Australia and New Zealand.
Instead, if we analyze the total beef production for each country, in tons, which is related to the availability of leather units, the situation is as follows: in order, the main producers are: the USA; Brazil, China, Argentina, India, Australia,  the Russian Federation and Mexico.
The varying populations in each country, together with the management of beef imports and exports motivate such difference.
To illustrate, Uruguay reveals a very high per capita consumption, but a very low population; on the other hand, China, with very low consumption levels, but a large number of inhabitants, deals with important numbers of slaughtered animals and therefore, relies on high leather availability.

Perspectives for Argentina
Per capita beef consumption dropped from 68 kg/year to 55.
Exports in kilograms declined by around 50%.
All indications are that slaughter will continue on the decline. In 2011, it could be lower than 11 million.
As explained above, a withholding period came into being; the number of slaughtered cows dropped, but stock recomposition will take 4 years.
Specialists in the farming and meat industry sector, among others, share the view that, in 2014-2015, it will be possible to slaughter around 13 million heads again, which would correspond to a yearly beef consumption of 55 kg per capita and an export of 500,000 tons.
Consumptions of 70 or 80 kg. are not expected in the future.

Notes:
ONCCA: Argentina National Office of Farming and Agriculture Trade Control.
SENASA: Argentine National Animal Health and Agri-food Quality Service